JAY’S PLAYS
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All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars

PRO FOOTBALL — September 16

MINNESOTA (+3) at DETROIT (Total 43) — The Vikings carry quite a streak into this one, having beaten Detroit ten straight times. But the dynamic may be a bit different this time around. True, the presence of talented rookie Adrian Peterson (103 yds. vs. Atlanta) tests a Lion defensive front that wasn’t sufficiently challenged against Oakland in Week 1. But Minnesota is breaking in a quarterback (Tarvaris Jackson) who may not be completely ready for the NFL. That cuts down offensive options. Detroit QB Jon Kitna is going to throw some away (two INT’s last week, 22 last year) but he’s going to make some plays too. In Oakland, Roy Williams and rookie Calvin Johnson caught TD’s, and backup Shaun McDonald gained 90 yards through the air with a score. Like Minny, the Lions can throw more than one running back at its opponents too; Kevin Jones was out last week (and likely here too) but Tatum Bell steps in, with T.J. Duckett in reserve. One has to remember that while the Vikes are double-tough defending against the run, there are holes in the secondary, as the team tied for last in the league in passing yards surrendered in ‘06.

JAY’S PLAY:  DETROIT **

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I don’t happen to share QB Jon Kitna’s optimism about the Lions 2007 season.  They keep forgetting that you need a defense and a offensive line to win in the NFL.  You would think ex-linebacker Matt Millen would realize that.  DTs Shaun Rogers, Corey Redding and OLB Ernie Sims are the only above average players on the entire defense.  The Lions will be giving up points faster than they can score them despite having all of the firepower they got.  It’s hard to see the Lions winning more than 5 games in 2007.

The over/under for Lions wins is 6 1/2.  The Lions are 80-1 to win the Super Bowl and 40-1 to win the NFC.

If you have to bet on the Lions, you must take the under.  I can’t project them to win 7 or more games with the roster they currently have.

The Lions have dominated the Packers in Michigan, covering eight of the last nine meetings.  This year the Lions are going to be a little better without the stiff Joey Harrington.  Brett Favre never plays well in domes and I don’t see him starting to at his advanced age.  Take the Lions and lay the points.